South Florida apartment developments could take over 20 months to stabilize

Apartment construction activity in South Florida continues to impact market conditions, with newly completed properties taking longer to attract renters.

New apartment projects in South Florida are now taking around 20 months to reach stabilization or over 90% occupancy, above the area’s historical norm of around 18 months.

Additional construction over the coming years will continue to exacerbate this trend, as construction starts edged higher in both Miami and Palm Beach in 2024. Furthermore, the employment market has provided further indications of this rise in development, with employment in the construction sector reaching record highs not seen since 2006.

These factors indicate that the apartment supply wave will continue to outpace demand in these areas, contrary to national trends, which have set expectations of a softening supply wave by 2026.

In South Florida, construction has been mainly concentrated in Miami, with the area’s supply pipeline shifting significantly over the last year, and now expected to remain elevated here through 2027.

While suburban submarkets in Miami currently face significant competition from new supply, these pressures are eventually expected to shift to downtown as new completions increase here after 2026.

While shifting supply waves at a submarket level may ease competition in certain areas, apartment managers continue to respond to new completions similarly across the entire tri-county region.

As indicated by the blue line above, over 25% of apartment properties in South Florida are now offering some type of concession, with two months of free rent being the most popular.

Additionally, luxury apartment asking rents have seen little movement upward since the second half of 2023, as indicated by the green line above.

That said, while Miami continues to see the highest apartment pipeline in all of Florida, with over 31,000 units underway, the majority of its submarkets are now seeing positive luxury rent gains. Improving conditions over the last year have been driven by strong renter demand in 2024, as well as the success of concessions.

These factors have helped keep the stabilized vacancy rate in Miami at 5%, below its pre-pandemic average of 6%. This has resulted in luxury rent gains of 1.5% in the Magic City over the past year, above the national average of 0.5%.

While Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach have seen weaker rent growth, the stabilized vacancy story remains similar in these areas, as apartment managers have successfully retained existing tenants in the face of new supply.